← RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.6% | +3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.3% | -4.4 |
| Rogue | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.6% | +10.1 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Vanitas | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 3 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 3 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |